Drive Incremental Growth

Where have all the shoppers gone?

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How UK shoppers are narrowing their choices — and what it means for growth

After two years of post-pandemic recalibration, UK consumers are still spending. But they are becoming more selective in where, when and why they do so.

Cardlytics’ latest State of Spend report draws on first-party purchase data from 23 million UK bank customers across the spring and summer period.

What it shows is simple: retail growth remains present, but increasingly uneven. Categories that feel essential, convenient or low-risk continue to attract spend. More discretionary and deferrable purchases are coming under greater pressure.

This is less a story of demand disappearing and more one of decision-making narrowing. For retailers and brands, growth will depend less on broad consumer momentum and more on securing a place in a smaller set of deliberate purchasing moments.

Essentials: fewer trips, tighter control

Essential categories remain the most resilient part of the market. But the pattern of spending suggests households are becoming more deliberate in how they manage everyday needs. Growth is still there — it is just concentrated in channels that offer either convenience at scale or a clearer sense of value.

The strongest performance continues to come from Digital & Delivery Grocery, where spend rose 17% in 2024 and 14% in 2025. Transactions also grew strongly, pointing to a channel still benefiting from continued adoption and slightly larger baskets.

Discounter Grocery shows a similar pattern, with spend up 9% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, supported by steady transaction growth. The category continues to act as a dependable value channel for households managing budgets carefully.

Among Big Grocers, growth is more subdued — 6% in 2024, slowing to 3% in 2025 — while transactions moved broadly flat. Spending is being held up by larger baskets rather than more visits. Convenience Grocery has come under greater pressure still, with trips down around 3%.

Fuel is the clearest sign of retrenchment within essentials. Spend declined 5% in 2024 and 10% in 2025, with early 2026 data indicating this behaviour is continuing.

Cardlytics analysis

Essential spend is still being protected, but the shape of that spend is changing. Consumers are concentrating everyday purchasing into channels that help them feel organised or in control — whether that’s delivery-led convenience or discounter-led value.

For marketers, the opportunity is less about generating additional need and more about intercepting planned purchase moments with a clear reason to choose one retailer or brand over another. In a market where fewer shopping occasions carry more weight, securing a greater share of each visit matters more.

Retail: a resilient base, but narrowing engagement

Retail continues to grow — but that growth is becoming more uneven. The strongest performance is increasingly concentrated in categories that feel accessible, repeatable or easy to justify. Traditional and aspirational areas are finding it harder to sustain engagement.

Make-up & Beauty remains one of the clearest areas of resilience. Spend rose 11% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, with transactions also moving in the right direction. It’s one of the few categories where shoppers still see room for smaller, more manageable discretionary purchases.

Online Fast Fashion continues to expand, up 14% and 9% across the two years, though baskets have softened slightly — shoppers engaging more frequently but with tighter control on basket size. Marketplaces are another strong area of growth, reinforcing their role as a flexible, value-conscious route to purchase.

Elsewhere, the picture tightens. High Street Fashion growth has slowed and transactions have flattened. Department Stores saw spend fall 3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, pointing to an ongoing footfall challenge. And Luxury / Designer Fashion spend declined 6% in 2024 and 8% in 2025 — purchases are still happening, but among fewer shoppers, less often.

Cardlytics analysis

The categories still growing are not necessarily those with the strongest brand pull. They are the ones most aligned with how consumers want to shop now: flexibly, frequently and with lower perceived risk.

For brands, that raises the importance of relevance, value communication and mission-based targeting over broader assumptions about seasonal demand. In a more selective market, success will depend less on broad visibility alone and more on giving shoppers a clear, immediate reason to engage.

Household: from upgrade to upkeep

Across home-related categories, the shift from 2024 into 2025 points to a more cautious consumer mindset. Spending hasn’t disappeared — but households are more willing to maintain and replace than to embark on larger, more discretionary home purchases.

Value Homeware has remained relatively stable, up 9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025. High Street Furniture shows a clearer slowdown, moving from 6% growth to 2%, with spend concentrating in fewer, higher-value occasions.

The pattern is more pressured in DIY. After 3% growth in 2024, spend moved into a 2% decline in 2025, with transactions down around 5%. Electricals follow a similar trajectory — from 4% growth to a 1% decline — with purchases increasingly concentrated in fewer, more considered buying moments.

Cardlytics analysis

In home-related categories, demand increasingly looks tied to maintenance, replacement and justified necessity rather than inspiration or upgrade. That changes what effective messaging looks like.

Brands here may need to focus less on aspiration and more on practicality, durability and timely relevance if they want to convert consumers who are clearly weighing whether a purchase can wait. The strongest opportunities come from moments where need is immediate and the value exchange is clear.

Wider discretionary: where the drop-off is most visible

The clearest signs of pressure appear outside the core retail categories — in areas where spending is most optional and easiest to postpone. Here the challenge is not how much consumers spend when they engage, but whether they enter the category at all.

Sporting Goods / Athleisure illustrates the shift most clearly. After 2% growth in 2024, spend moved to a 6% decline in 2025, with transactions down around 7% while ATV stayed broadly stable. The pressure is being driven by fewer shoppers choosing to participate — not by smaller baskets.

Books, by contrast, continues to perform strongly, up 12% in 2024 and 9% in 2025. It remains one of the clearest examples of a discretionary category where engagement holds up — consumers are still willing to spend where purchases feel lower-cost, familiar or easy to justify.

The issue is no longer simply whether shoppers can spend, but which categories still make the cut.

Cardlytics analysis

For discretionary categories, the core challenge is re-engagement. When consumers are reducing the number of optional purchases they make, brands need stronger triggers to prompt participation in the first place.

That may mean leaning harder into immediacy, occasion-based relevance, perceived value or more functional reasons to buy — rather than assuming promotions alone will unlock demand. Growth depends less on broad category momentum and more on giving consumers a compelling reason to opt in at all.

Looking ahead into 2026

Early 2026 performance is already pointing to where the narrowing of shopper demand is concentrating. Online pharmacy revenue is driving Beauty category growth. Health & wellbeing FMCG is up against overall category decline. Electronics AOV is rising on accessories, PC and gaming. And Paint & Home Furnishings are rising even as DIY declines — a clear signal that the channel and use-case shifts identified in this report are continuing.

Fewer decisions, higher stakes

The summer shopper has not disappeared, but the number of decisions they appear willing to make has narrowed.

Across the market, the strongest performance is coming from categories that feel essential, convenient or easy to justify, while more deferrable and aspirational purchases are facing greater pressure. That does not point to a collapse in consumer demand — it points to a consumer mindset that is becoming more selective about where spending feels worthwhile.

For retailers and brands, that creates a more competitive environment. Growth is no longer just about being present at the point of purchase — it is about being relevant enough to be included in a smaller set of deliberate decisions. In that context, value, timing and clarity matter more, particularly in categories where engagement can no longer be taken for granted.

How marketers should show up

01.  Protect existing shoppers first

Shoppers don’t leave in one move — they drift. Transaction data already shows who’s slipping. Reaching a lapsed shopper around their next likely need window is cheaper than finding a replacement, and more effective than broad re-acquisition.

02.  Growth sits in small, repeat purchases

The categories still expanding are the ones where the purchase feels small, familiar and easy to justify. Find the version of your product that fits a smaller, more frequent moment — something a shopper says yes to without deliberation.

03.  Solve for participation, not basket size

The harder question isn’t what a shopper spends when they show up — it’s whether they show up at all. Discounting rarely pulls someone into a category they’ve stepped out of. An immediate, tangible need does.

The brands best placed to outperform will be those that understand which purchase moments consumers still prioritise — and can show up in those moments with a clear and compelling reason to buy.

Talk to Cardlytics about how purchase intelligence and card-linked offers can help your brand secure a place in a smaller, more deliberate set of consumer decisions — www.cardlytics.com

The Controlled Consumer:

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Why UK shoppers entered 2026 already spending with intent

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The New Year value hunt started before Christmas.

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Cardlytics’ State of Spend analysis of Q4 2025 and early Q1 2026 shows that UK consumers did not loosen their spending habits over the festive period. Instead, they became more deliberate about how and where they spent. Drawing on card-based transaction data from over 23 million bank accounts, the analysis points to a shift toward a more controlled approach to spending that is now shaping behaviour into 2026.

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The last State of Spend showed that UK consumers had returned to the market, but with conditions. Spending resumed, but cautiously. Shoppers scrutinised price, convenience and perceived quality, pulling back when expectations were not met. Consumers would still spend, but largely when prompted by the right offer or moment.

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The latest data shows that this scrutiny has since become embedded in shoppers’ habits. December revealed how consumers were already operating under tighter decision-making rules as they approached the new year.

With inflation ticking up again at the end of the year, cost pressures remained firmly in place. Rather than retreating from spending altogether, consumers adapted — switching formats, trading down and filtering purchases more aggressively. Festive spending held, but it was more controlled, with loyalty weakening and defaults increasingly questioned. As a result, consumers entered Q1 already spending more selectively.

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Read the full report by downloading it here.

The Golden Quarter is Changing: Inside the 2025 State of Spend

The UK’s peak retail season is evolving. Consumers are still spending, but they’re more selective, strategic, and values-driven than ever before. Based on spend data from over 23 million UK bank accounts and nationally representative research, Cardlytics' State of Spend report uncovers what’s shaping the 2025 Golden Quarter — and where brands should focus to win.

Headline Trend Summaries (With Light Stats)

1. Black Friday is no longer the main event
The era of single-day shopping spikes is fading. Our data reveals that consumers are spreading spend across weekends and early December instead. Brands focused only on the Friday are missing the bigger picture.

2. Gifts that matter and don’t just impress
Over half of consumers say they’re choosing meaningful or practical gifts this year. Beauty and books are holding strong, while luxury and electrical categories are losing ground.

3. Fashion is fragmenting
Fast fashion still performs, but growth is slowing. Shoppers are shifting toward resale platforms and marketplaces that offer affordability and sustainability in one.

4. Grocery is about confidence, not just cost
Spend is still rising across grocery - but discounters, delivery services, and high-end grocers are outpacing traditional supermarkets. Value is no longer just about price; it’s about trust and convenience.

Consumers are still buying. They’re just doing it on their terms. The winners in 2025 will meet them where they are — with relevance, value, and visibility.”

Want the full data?

The full report includes:

• Category-by-category breakdowns from 2022 to 2024
  
• 2025 retail forecasts across 14 key sectors
  
• Consumer behaviour insights and shopping intent
  
• Strategic recommendations for campaign planning

Download the Full Report