The Golden Quarter is stretching out.

‍The Golden Quarter is no longer defined by a single shopping peak. Cardlytics analysed four years of UK purchase data, and consumer shopping trends point to a longer, steadier shopping season. Easing utility bills have unlocked more flexibility for households, meaning strong consumer resilience is hiding behind a seemingly flat top-line.

−0.8%

‍Overall tracked spending contracted slightly to £31.8bn — a decrease driven by falling utility costs rather than a lack of consumer confidence.

+1.7%

Excluding utilities, core quarterly spending grew. Discretionary purchasing remained resilient.

65p

For every £1 households saved on essential bills like energy and broadband, 65p was redirected into other sectors.

+1.1%

The traditional nine-day Black Friday window saw modest growth, levelling out after the 19% surge the prior year.

Three of our eight predictions

1. Black Friday won't grow: It is now a flat event. Shoppers are spending more in the weeks before it starts.

2. Discounters win Christmas dinner: Discount supermarkets will pass 10% of all grocery spend, hurting the mid-market brands.

3. The party moves to the pub: Sit-down dining is dropping. Pubs will hold steady, while fast food only grows because prices went up.

Get all eight predictions and how to win

‍The full report covers every prediction, including why retail will take more share, a record quarter for gaming and why next summer gets booked before Christmas, with the data behind each one, its trend rating and what it means for advertisers. Plus the one to watch: will December stall again?